Really Rocket Science

Yomiuri Shimbun Senior Writer Keiko Chino presents an interesting perspective on this story:

The Kizuna has high-performance antennae that allow it to provide communications coverage for the whole of Japan and many other areas in the Asia-Pacific region. The satellite will be used to conduct experiments on super-high-speed data transmission and test alternatives to ground-based telecommunications, to allow communication to continue if land-based facilities are rendered unusable by a natural disaster.

The cost of developing the Kizuna, including the launch, was nearly 50 billion yen.

The Kizuna project started in 2000, when then Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori first made it a priority to promote information technology and allocated a budget for related projects.

Most ministries and agencies subsequently submitted policy plans related to information technology, of which the Kizuna formed the space development element.

However, from the initial stages of the project, some experts voiced doubts about the satellite's cost efficiency.

Information technologies progress rapidly. A satellite, however, requires about 10 years from planning to launch.

Initially, the launch of the the Kizuna was scheduled for fiscal 2005. But it is a truism in the world of space development that development of satellites never progresses as planned.

Some experts feared that the technologies to be tested would be outdated by the time the satellite was launched. A situation made worse by the failure in 2003 to launch an H-2A rocket that caused a dominolike effect, delaying all further launches.

During this period, development of fiber-optic technology and other land-based facilities for the Internet progressed.

JAXA and the Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry insist that conducting experiments with the Kizuna will show that this type of satellite is useful and that the use of such satellites should be expanded.

But even a JAXA insider expressed skepticism, saying, "Was launching this satellite really worthwhile?"

Until a backlog of projects was cleared, JAXA was not allowed to begin manufacturing new satellites, a rule that impeded Japan's space development plans.

A long waiting list of satellite launches was finally cleared between 2006 and this month, allowing Japan to enter a new stage of space development.

But it is not clear what Japan's future plans are, especially regarding communication satellites such as the Kizuna.

The Education, Science and Technology Ministry's Space Activities Commission agreed Feb. 20 on a long-term space development plan it had worked on since 2006.

The plan outlines national space development policy and projects to be conducted by the government over the coming decade, giving priority to three fields of satellite technology: Observation of the Earth's environment; disaster monitoring and communications; and global positioning.

The commission member who led the drafting of the long-term plan said communication satellites and related projects would not form part of the government's plans for future projects.

An official at JAXA, which has played key roles in the government's satellite development projects, also said: "For us, there remain only a few more areas to study in the field [of communication satellites]. If a project of this type is undertaken, it should involve the development of huge antennae."

However, the long-term plan does include studies for building systems capable of enabling data communication in the event of a disaster. It has not been made clear how this study differs from the study of communication satellites, which are supposed to have been omitted from the plan.

At the commission's Feb. 20 meeting, one member told JAXA: "We haven't said the government will no longer conduct communication satellite projects. JAXA is wrong if it believes the government has said it won't launch communication satellites anymore." A comment that suggested the government's stance on the issue has not yet been finalized.

One reason future plans remain unclear is that the government has not fully tested communication satellites it has launched in the past.

The government has been unable to conduct planned experiments on three communication satellites launched in succession since 1994, due to the craft failing to enter their designated orbits and malfunctions of onboard devices.

The commission, which is in charge of evaluating the satellites, praised the findings of experiments carried out, despite the fact that all planned experiments could not be done, and concluded that the launches were meaningful. The commission has not been able to examine what would be needed in the future.

When it comes to communications and other types of satellites designed for practical use in the future, conducting experiments should not be the sole goal. It is necessary to evaluate experiments from many points of view, such as cost efficiency and how such technologies could be utilized. The commission must make a greater effort in this area, such as appointing as members more experts who can evaluate such points.

One telecommunications technology expert said: "A commercial demand exists for satellites, especially communication satellites. The government should continue to develop technologies in this field."

The problem, however, is that there has been no discussion about the advisability of the government's making further efforts in this field.

The launch of the Kizuna highlights the need to determine, in a considered manner, how to shape the nation's future satellite program.